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PRECIOUS METALS, FINANCIAL MATTERS, AND THE WORLD ECONOMY
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    Traders and investors around the world are placing bets on whether or not the U.S. Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, will soon raise short-term interest rates given the continuing ambiguity in U.S. and global economic indicators and continuing volatility in world financial markets. Some days there seems to be a consensus in the marketplace expecting […]

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    For the past year and longer, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies have been the single-most important determinant of day-to-day fluctuations in the price of gold. Indeed, the persistent widespread belief that the Fed would soon start weaning the markets off near-zero interest rates, however wrong, has weighed heavily on gold prices while […]

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  • 11/13/15--10:41: GOLD: RECOVERY INSIGHT
  • Despite increasingly strong supply/demand fundamentals, gold prices continue to tread water – more or less within a narrow $100 range – having hit overhead resistance a few weeks ago near $1175 and now testing support near $1075 an ounce. For the past year or two, financial-market expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate policies – driven […]

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    By the time you read this Commentary, chances are the Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, will have announced its decision to raise, if only by a slim quarter-percentage point, its key Fed funds interest rate. This is the rate banks charge one another in the interbank market for short-term funds – and it influences the […]

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  • 01/07/16--10:39: Wall Street Matters
  • Gold bulls have suffered years of disappointment, having seen their favorite metal’s price lose more than 40 percent from its all-time historic high of $1,924 an ounce in early September 2011. Last year alone the price of gold fell some 10 percent, leaving many investors, analysts, and financial-market pundits despondent about the prospects for gold […]

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  • 02/19/16--09:03: The Gold Bull Begins to Stir
  • These days I am feeling very bullish on the prospects for gold – and I would not be surprised to see prices double or possibly do even better over the next three-to-five years. Moreover, there is even some chance gold prices will break into record high territory (exceeding $1,924 an ounce) later this year or […]

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      Despite gold’s recent sell off, I feel increasingly comfortable with our short-term (one-year) and our long-term (five-to-seven year) forecast of the future price of gold. Indeed, by this time next year, gold’s price could be challenging or even surpassing the yellow metal’s all-time high of $1,924 an ounce reached in September 2011. And, looking […]

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  • 04/26/16--11:22: Gold: More About the Outlook
  • You wouldn’t know it reading the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg’s, or the other popular investment news sources . . . but thus far this year gold prices are up some 15-to-20 percent, making the yellow metal just about the top-performing investment asset class of 2016. We expect gold will continue to be one of the […]

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  • 06/03/16--09:40: Founding Fathers Liked Gold
  • To be sure, more than a few of our nation’s Founding Fathers owned gold and silver coins to preserve wealth at a time when paper currency wasn’t worth a Continental. Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Hamilton, Franklin, and Madison, each likely held gold coins as a form of saving and to preserve wealth during years of high inflation. […]

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    Although gold prices have had some difficulty sustaining recent gains above the $1365 per ounce level, the metal has nevertheless registered just about the best performance across virtually all investment classes over the past six or seven months. Over the past half year, the metal has rallied some 25 to 30 percent – far better […]

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  • 08/22/16--13:06: Gold: Day of Reckoning Ahead
  • Although the price of gold is up some 25 percent so far this year, the metal still remains 30 percent below its all-time high of $1,924 registered in September 2011 – so there’s still plenty of room overhead for the price of gold to move higher – as I think it will – without excessive […]

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    I recently sat down with Mining.com to talk about gold and the outlook for the yellow metal.  Here's a summary of that conversation:   Jeffrey Nichols has been a precious metal economist for over 25 years, so if there’s someone who knows every nook and cranny of the gold market, that is him. Like many others, including […]

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    I don’t like to make short-term predictions about the price of gold – people who do are usually very lucky or very wrong. But times they are changing . . . and we are entering a new phase in gold-price action where expectations of Fed interest-rate policy will become less important and other, more bullish, […]

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  • 10/09/16--11:36: Flash Crash?
  • Gold has once again surprised. This time, news from “outside the market” set in motion a chain reaction that knocked gold for a loop. First, the British confirmed the country was withdrawing from the European Union . . . and sooner than most had expected. This triggered an instant devaluation of the British pound and […]

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    Regardless of who moves into the White House this coming January, gold prices are set to zoom in the years ahead – in my view, more than doubling during the next President’s term. What many Western investors – particularly Americans – still fail to realize is that investment demand for gold knows no boarders. Indeed, […]

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  • 12/13/16--12:58: Gold: Faulty Expectations
  • Contrary to expectations, ours and nearly everyone else’s who pay attention to the price of gold, the yellow metal has, since Election Day, shed nearly 15 percent of its value in U.S. dollars. According to the pundits who pay attention to such matters, the election of Donald Trump should have pulled the rug out from […]

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    Last year’s big surprise in the world of gold was the failure of prices to move higher. Even strong physical demand for the metal and election-related uncertainties following Trump’s surprising victory could not underpin a sustainable rise in the price. Instead, expectations of higher interest rates, an appreciating dollar, and record-high equity prices held the […]

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    Gold prices of late have been testing support just under the market, if you will, preparing for a healthy rally into higher territory. As I see it, a relatively small group of hedge funds and institutional speculators have been calling the tune for gold, trading the recent range, buying on dips, selling on rallies, and […]

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  • 03/21/17--08:37: Surprise, Surprise!
  • Despite last week’s move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to tighten monetary policy a notch, gold prices surprised many observers of and participants in the gold scene who had expected the quarter-point increase in short-term interest rates would be sufficient to knock the metal into a still-lower trading range under $1,200 an […]

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  • 05/02/17--10:03: GOLD: TREADING WATER
  • One big surprise in the world of gold thus far this year has been the metal’s lack of price volatility. This despite: All the uncertainty associated with a new, and somewhat maverick, president in the White House compounded by a dysfunctional and highly political Congress, The coming withdrawal of Britain from the European Union and the […]